Page 219 - 20dynamics of cancer

204 CHAPTER 10

All Heart Cancer
4
(a) 3 (d) 4 (g)
Death rate 3 2 1 3
4

2
20 40 60 100 20 40 60 100 2 20 40 60 100

0
1 8 (b) 0 1 (e) 4 (h)
Acceleration 6 4 8 6 2 0

2
2 4 −2
20 40 60 100 0 20 40 60 100 20 40 60 100

Acceleration 8 6 4 (c) 1 8 6 (f) 4 2 0 (i)

0 2 4 2 −2
20 40 60 80 100 20 40 60 80 100 20 40 60 80 100
Age

Figure 10.1 Age-specific mortality patterns by cause of death. Data averaged
for the years 1999 and 2000 for non-Hispanic white females in the United
States from statistics distributed by the National Center for Health Statistics,
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/, Worktable Orig291. The top row of panels shows
the age-specific death rate per 100,000 individuals on a log-log scale. The
columns plot all causes of death, death by heart disease, and death by can-
cer. The second row of panels shows the same data, but plots the age-specific
acceleration of death instead of the age-specific rate of death. Acceleration is
the derivative (slope) of the rate curves in the top row. The bottom row takes
the plots in the row above, transforms the age axis to a linear scale to spread
the ages more evenly, and applies a mild smoothing algorithm that retains the
same shape but smooths the jagged curves. From Frank (2004a).

a different cause of death and the percentage of deaths associated with
that cause.
The panels in the left column of Figure 10.2 show causes that ac-
count for about one-half of all deaths. Each of those causes shares two
attributes of age-specific acceleration. From early life until about age 80,
the acceleration in mortality increases in an approximately linear way.