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538 Dissenting Statement

Losses in Scenario 2
Number of mortgages: 53 million
Prime: 27 million
Original subprime/Alt-A: 7.7 million
FHA/VA: 5.2 million
Other subprime/Alt-A: 13 million (10.5 F&F (excludes 1.25 million already
counted in PMBS), 2.5 million other loans not securitized (mostly held by the large
banks))
Aggregate Value:
Prime= $4.7 trillion ($173,000 X 27 million);
Original Subprime/Alt-A = $1.7 trillion ($220,000 X 7.7 million)
FHA/VA= $700 billion ($130,000x5.2 million)
Other subprime/Alt-A: $2 trillion ($154,000X13 million
Total expected foreclosures: 8.4 million (3.5% X 27 million=0.95 million,
45% X 7.7 million=3.5 million, 30% X 13 million=3.9 million)
Losses on foreclosures: $890 billion ($4.7 trillion X 1.6%=$60 billion + $1.7
trillion X 25%=$425 billion + $700 billion X 15% = $105 billion + $2 trillion X 15%
= $300 billion)
Overall loss percentage: 9.8%, for an increase of 150%