Page 7 - A Brief History of Time - Stephen Hawking

A Brief History of Time - Stephen Hawking... Chapter 1
time in such a manner as to look as though it had existed forever. But in 1929, Edwin Hubble made the
landmark observation that wherever you look, distant galaxies are moving rapidly away from us. In other words,
the universe is expanding. This means that at earlier times objects would have been closer together. In fact, it
seemed that there was a time, about ten or twenty thousand million years ago, when they were all at exactly
the same place and when, therefore, the density of the universe was infinite. This discovery finally brought the
question of the beginning of the universe into the realm of science.

Hubble’s observations suggested that there was a time, called the big bang, when the universe was
infinitesimally small and infinitely dense. Under such conditions all the laws of science, and therefore all ability
to predict the future, would break down. If there were events earlier than this time, then they could not affect
what happens at the present time. Their existence can be ignored because it would have no observational
consequences. One may say that time had a beginning at the big bang, in the sense that earlier times simply
would not be defined. It should be emphasized that this beginning in time is very different from those that had
been considered previously. In an unchanging universe a beginning in time is something that has to be
imposed by some being outside the universe; there is no physical necessity for a beginning. One can imagine
that God created the universe at literally any time in the past. On the other hand, if the universe is expanding,
there may be physical reasons why there had to be a beginning. One could still imagine that God created the
universe at the instant of the big bang, or even afterwards in just such a way as to make it look as though there
had been a big bang, but it would be meaningless to suppose that it was created before the big bang. An
expanding universe does not preclude a creator, but it does place limits on when he might have carried out his
job!

In order to talk about the nature of the universe and to discuss questions such as whether it has a beginning or
an end, you have to be clear about what a scientific theory is. I shall take the simpleminded view that a theory
is just a model of the universe, or a restricted part of it, and a set of rules that relate quantities in the model to
observations that we make. It exists only in our minds and does not have any other reality (whatever that might
mean). A theory is a good theory if it satisfies two requirements. It must accurately describe a large class of
observations on the basis of a model that contains only a few arbitrary elements, and it must make definite
predictions about the results of future observations. For example, Aristotle believed Empedocles’s theory that
everything was made out of four elements, earth, air, fire, and water. This was simple enough, but did not make
any definite predictions. On the other hand, Newton’s theory of gravity was based on an even simpler model, in
which bodies attracted each other with a force that was proportional to a quantity called their mass and
inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them. Yet it predicts the motions of the sun, the
moon, and the planets to a high degree of accuracy.
Any physical theory is always provisional, in the sense that it is only a hypothesis: you can never prove it. No
matter how many times the results of experiments agree with some theory, you can never be sure that the next
time the result will not contradict the theory. On the other hand, you can disprove a theory by finding even a
single observation that disagrees with the predictions of the theory. As philosopher of science Karl Popper has
emphasized, a good theory is characterized by the fact that it makes a number of predictions that could in
principle be disproved or falsified by observation. Each time new experiments are observed to agree with the
predictions the theory survives, and our confidence in it is increased; but if ever a new observation is found to
disagree, we have to abandon or modify the theory.

At least that is what is supposed to happen, but you can always question the competence of the person who
carried out the observation.

In practice, what often happens is that a new theory is devised that is really an extension of the previous theory.
For example, very accurate observations of the planet Mercury revealed a small difference between its motion
and the predictions of Newton’s theory of gravity. Einstein’s general theory of relativity predicted a slightly
different motion from Newton’s theory. The fact that Einstein’s predictions matched what was seen, while
Newton’s did not, was one of the crucial confirmations of the new theory. However, we still use Newton’s theory
for all practical purposes because the difference between its predictions and those of general relativity is very
small in the situations that we normally deal with. (Newton’s theory also has the great advantage that it is much
simpler to work with than Einstein’s!)

The eventual goal of science is to provide a single theory that describes the whole universe. However, the

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