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Chapter III. Results
the study populations. Relative comparisons of the effectiveness of the screening systems and of
the potential impact of screening interval cannot be made across studies.
With these caveats, we describe in greater detail selected studies of incidence of
histologic or cytologic abnormalities among previously screened women, prevalence within
screening programs, and the influence of interval and prior screening history on probability of
detecting abnormalities.
Incidence and Age
Each of the studies reporting incidence of CIN and more serious lesions constructed their
cohort by requiring a normal Pap test as the earliest reference point. Computerized record-
keeping systems from a single cytology laboratory 34,35 assure relative consistency of quality of
examination of the baseline and subsequent Pap tests; in relatively stable populations, they also
allow exclusion of women with prior documentation of abnormal cytology. Sawaya and
colleagues prospectively gathered data assuring that baseline cytology for individuals entering
the study was reported as normal; however, this does not exclude the possibility that participants
may have had a more remote history of dysplasia evaluation or treatment. 26,36,44 In the reports
based on the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program, laboratory facilities
across the United States processed Pap tests; 26,36 in the Heart and Estrogen/progestin
Replacement Study (HERS) study, a single commercial laboratory (Empire Pathology Medical
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Group, Garden Grove, CA) processed tests.
Despite these distinctions and different groupings of age in the analysis of data, estimates
of incidence of high-grade lesions are compatible across the studies of incidence: 1.0 per 1,000
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women 41 years of age and older, screened at an interval of approximately 1 year; 1.2 per
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